In our course materials this week, we were introduced to some very useful information about the processes in which we engage to solve problems, reason, and make important (and not so important) decisions. Several methods and strategies were explained in our reading and now we will take the time to put some of the information to use!
Click the link below to get to the game for this discussion forum; you will be relatively familiar with it, some more than others.
Rules to the game are available on the website for those needing additional instructions. While playing the game, be sure to keep note of your steps, the processes in which you are engaging throughout the game, and why.
- After completing the game, it should only take about 5 to 7 minutes to play, discuss your processes throughout the selection and decision-making steps of the game.
- Discuss the influence of reasoning, risk-taking, framing, emotions, mental models, and other processes and factors in the decision-making process on your final decision to make a deal or not make a deal.
- Identify and explain the problem-solving and decision-making models you feel you used while navigating the game and how these may have been improved upon reflection of the activity.
Minimum 300 words answer
For whatever reason I could not access the game on the computers so I eventually tried my phone. I also had to look up some directions since I had never heard of the game. Once the game opened, I saw no problem-solving choices available. It seemed to be luck of the draw. So the game is not heuristic but trial and error. I started off by choosing even numbers and about every four tries, I would win big. After five minutes of that I chose to switch it up and chose odd numbers. This change returned less dividends. It took six to seven tries to win bigger. Finally I decided to mix it a little by choosing whatever numbers fit my fancy or instinctively felt lucky in the moment. This increased by big wins to an average of every three tries. Whenever I was offered a dealer choice I chose even or odd based on which theme I was in say for instance I was choosing the even numbered cases, then the dealer offered a deal, if it was the first offer I refused to take it, but the 2nd and 4th offers I did. When I started mixing my choices, I took no offers.I made it up to 320,000. Since I evolved my pattern of choosing to see if there was a difference in the outcome or an observed method of reasoning you could say there was visual proof. There were no arguments, or inductive reasoning, however I did test for the reliability of winning. So I guess you could say I used logic and theory to reason out my best course of action.
In this week’s lesson, we discuss problem solving and reasoning. Much of our daily lives revolve around problem solving in one way or another. Problem solving is figuring out a solution for an obstacle that’s answer is not readily available. Reasoning is drawing conclusions using the information we are given and then comparing it to information we already know.
For this forum post, we are tasked with playing the game Deal or No Deal and describing our methods of the decision making process in the selection of the cases and whether or not to make a deal with the banker. The purpose of the game is to eliminate cases that have the lowest cash value amounts, in the hopes that the case you chose for yourself has the most money while simultaneously haggling with the banker for various cash offers depending on the probability of how much money you will actually win as cases with varying amounts disappear. The case I chose as my own was number 21. I chose this case because on the twenty first day of September my first child was born. For the first set of cases I chose cases whose numbers were multiples of 3. As there are many cases and we have to decide to eliminate 6 at a time, I did not want to give myself to much time to stew over my selections. This actually worked in my favor as I knocked out a majority of low numbers. My first offer was 78,000, and I decided No Deal. I went into the game knowing I would not accept the first offer no matter what it was. I continued making my selections using rules of multiples, then factors, and prime numbers until I was down to four cases. I chose to take a deal of 416,000.
I used deductive reasoning when making the decision on whether or not to take the first deal offered to me by the banker based on the amounts that were still available. I knew that since I still had several cases with amounts higher than what was offered, I would not take the deal. I also used logic when considering the probability of picking certain cases based on the value amount in cases I had eliminated compared to the amount in cases I had yet to pick. My final decision to make a deal with the banker was based on risk. I was not willing to continue choosing cases because I did not want to chance losing such a good offer should I choose a case that would eliminate a higher amount.
I love that that our forum posts are interactive. I played the game a few times, but I did not make as much as I did the first time. I think knowing that no real money was at stake made it easier to take risks. I feel that if I was actually on the show, and there was the pressure of time, and my close family watching I may have folded and taken a lower offer.
I had a really fun time playing this game. I remember watching the TV show when I was younger. I had a turn with it and then my husband had a turn with it. When I was playing it, I picked a random suitcase as mine. After that I started with the suitcases on the bottom and got lucky by eliminating some of the smaller value suitcases. I tried a couple in the top two rows and they were big value ones. So, I tried to stick to the middle and bottom suitcases. When it came time to decide whether or not I should take the deal, my husband was adamantly telling me to take the deal at $124 thousand. I decided not to take the deal and ended up eliminating a couple more of the big value suitcases which brought the deal down a little bit. But, the one million dollars suitcase was still on the board. I think the fact that it was still on there drove me to continue to turn down the deals because I was confident that I had the suitcase. It was starting to get too risky for me with about 8 suitcases left and I finally took the deal at $167 thousand. I think I used trial and error while playing this game. Trial and error is when we keep trying different solutions until the problem is solved (OER Commons, 2020). For example, I did pick a couple from the top two rows of suitcases but after all the ones I picked from those rows turned out to be the larger valued ones, I stopped picking suitcases from those rows. My husband on the other hand did not have a reason for his method of picking out suitcases. He just went down the line and took the deal when there was like five suitcases left. It turned out that he picked the million dollar suitcase.
Minimum 200 words answer